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社科院教授与欧华报记者谈中西经济

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发表于 2011-4-9 23:41:52 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
专访中国社科院程恩富教授
2011-04-09 17:43    来源:欧华报      

记者:殷景奇 编者按:中国社会科学院经济社会发展研究中心主任程恩富教授,受西班牙巴斯克大学、萨拉曼卡大学、马德里大学和西班牙部分党派的邀请,于三月下旬在上述几所大学发表了“中国社会模式”的学术演讲。程恩富教授上海人,中国社科院经济社会发展研究中心主任,全国人大代表,中鞅和国务院的高级智囊成员之一。本报记者有幸访问了他,程教授妙语连珠,深入浅出,特发表如下,与读者共享。  编者按:中国社会科学院经济社会发展研究中心主任程恩富教授,受西班牙巴斯克大学、萨拉曼卡大学、马德里大学和西班牙部分党派的邀请,于三月下旬在上述几所大学发表了“中国社会模式”的学术演讲。程恩富教授上海人,中国社科院经济社会发展研究中心主任,全国人大代表,中鞅和国务院的高级智囊成员之一。本报记者有幸访问了他,程教授妙语连珠,深入浅出,特发表如下,与读者共享。

  与西班牙华人谈几个经济政治难题

  —专访中国社科院经济社会发展研究中心主任程恩富教授

  本报记者殷景奇

  记者:程先生,您好!欢迎您来西班牙访问。近日,您向西班牙学术堺和部分党派介绍了中国社会模式,宣传效果挺好。西班牙与中国历史上交往不多,近年往来稍有增加,但西班牙民众对中国国情相对陌生,西班牙媒体对中国的社会现实情况的表述,时常植入主观意识。我从西班牙听众的提问中感觉到,诸多疑问来自历史上的误导,他们幻听了一些迄日中国已不复存在社会概念。在中西两国民间渐进交流的新时期,您的访问和学术演说是及时和必要的。我想就几个华人感兴趣的问题与您聊聊,请不吝赐教。

  西班牙人五百年前,荷兰人三百年前,英国人两百年前,美国人一百年前,先后以强盗的身份,跨洋越海,掳夺资源,拓展市场,瓜分世堺。而今中国,“小荷才露尖尖角”,摸着石头过河,试探性地走向海外寻找市场,为何立即引起西方国际社会的普遍关注和惊慌?有西班牙人向华人提出质疑:中国地大物博,人口众多,内需充盈,市场繁荣,为何迫不及待地渗透海外抢购原料,抢占市场?中国不是发展很好吗,你们为什么要到我们这样的小国家来竞争?中国可怕的人口增长速度,是否在一百年内成为世堺殖民大国?

  程恩富:您说的对,许多西方发达国家在发展经济和变成强国的过程中,大搞新老殖鈱主义、经济剥削、政治压迫、军事侵略和文化奴役,不少欠发达国家深受其害,至今难以恢复元气。

  中国不会因人口众多而走殖民老路。历史上中国人口一向众多,以汉族为代表的主体民族并没有通过血腥暴力、抢占领土和贩卖奴隶等途径来发达本国。郑和多次下西洋的目的在于通商,西班牙冒险航海发现新大陆的目的在于殖民,两者有本质的区别。搞不搞新老殖鈱主义,不在于一国的人口多少,而在于该国统治阶级的经济性质和政治军事理念。中国儒释道自古强调“和而不同”的河蟹理念,几千年均反对侵略和掠夺别国。中国国民生产总值还有约20年、人民币购买力平价还有几年,就将超过美国而名列世堺首位,但中国没有追求狭隘利益的私有垄断组织和军工集团作怪,不可能推行霸权和殖民。

  西班牙既然也主张经济全球化,贸易和投资自由化,作为生产要素之一的劳动力为何不能自由流动呢?中国等发展中国家的剩余劳动力和各类人才自愿流动到西班牙,廉价的产品被西班牙的生产和消费所需要,客观上将有助于西班牙降低经济成本和生活费用,具有不同程度的经济互补作用,因而是互利互惠的双赢。发达国家不是喜欢大讲人权和自由吗?现在发展中国家的人想自由地移民到发达国家,这不是地球村的人的自由迁徙权吗?为何又要叶公好龙式地反对呢?

  我认为,为了不走美国和鈤本等发达国家,大规模利用别国自然资源和生态环境的老路,中国必须在过去的近40年累计少生近4亿人的基础上,继续实行较严格的计划生育政策,应实行“城乡一胎、特殊二胎、严禁三胎、奖励无胎”的“一胎化”新政,从而缓解中外资源和环境的压力,使生活水平进一步显著提高。中国和世堺的人口政策应当促进零增长,以减少各国之间资源战、生态战、贸易战等。中国旅外人士也应倡导只生一胎。

  记者:美元操控世堺金融市场秩序,人民币被迫升值,欧元波动诡异,旅西华商的进出口贸易经营惨淡。请您预期评估一下人民币既定事实的升值,对中国通货膨胀造成如何影响?人民币与欧元下一步的关系及走势如何?

  程恩富:美国指责中国正攵府操纵人民币及其汇率,那是没有道理的。但是,人民币的适度缓慢升值,将有益于提高中国出口的产品结构和技术结构,转变对内对外经济和贸易发展方式,改善出口创汇导向型外贸战略。人民币的缓慢升值对中国通货膨胀的影响有一些,但不是主要的。预计中国“十二五”期间还会年年有5%左右的通货膨胀。既然人民币对美元的汇率逐渐有所变化,那么对欧元的汇率也会随之变化。华商应有人民币缓慢升值5年的思想准备和相应决策。

  记者:中国购买了西班牙七十多亿欧元的国债,在西班牙危难之际帮了大忙,然而西班牙民间似乎并不太领情,一副“狼来了”的酸腐情绪。目前,西班牙经济持续捉肘见襟,大量发行高利息国债乃是寅吃卯粮,老子赊账儿孙还钱,这届正攵府不管下届正攵府的死活。华人十分担忧,中国正攵府对此举是否有科学的保值风险评估?

  程恩富:对于中国正攵府继续大量购买发达国家的国债,形成过度的外汇储备,许多经济学家和社会人士是持异议的。一是超高的外汇储备加大了人民币升值的压力。“外汇储备过万亿”被美国等发达国家看作是人民币币值低估的最具体表现。他们开始更加强硬地要求人民币升值,并且以各种制裁措施相威胁。这引发了较多的国际经济争端,导致我国出口遭遇较多贸易摩擦和贸易壁垒。二是外汇储备规模过大影响国内经济。在现有结售汇制度下,我国的外汇储备管理最终会把它的消极影响作用到国内经济生活上,引起国内流动性过剩,非理性投资活动膨胀,价格机制扭曲,宏观调控难度加大。三是外汇储备结构不合理会导致国民财富大量流失。

  虽然自人民币汇率改革以来,我国外汇储备已经开始转向一揽子储备方式,但其中美元储备还是大头。近年来日趋走低的美元汇率,已经使我国的外汇储备蒙受了巨大的贬值损失。而2008年爆发的美国金融危机更把中国外汇储备的保值风险推到了历史最高点,使中国外汇储备蒙受了相当的经济损失。

  巨额的外汇储备是我们来之不易的宝贵财富,除了合理地安排其在境外的投资结构,同时也要合理配置手中已有的外汇资源。从基础设施建设到社会保障体系的完善,从西部开发到东北振兴都需要大量的资本投入作为保证。尽可能实现保值和增值以外,还应当有计划地激活这些资源,用于国内急需和有建设性意义的社会保障、基础教育、医疗卫生和环境保护等事业。也可以搞“主权基金”,或直接进行“海外购物”,购买高端技术及设备或相关物资等。总之,要降低货币资本储存的机会成本,提高资本配置的经济效率。根本的解决办法,是促进人民币全面可自由兑换并逐步成为世堺贸易结算、流通和储备货币。

  记者:我看到El presi Wen在“两会”后的记者招待会上,着重回答了记者提出的中国社会的腐败问题,明确表示腐败问题的根本是一个国家的制度问题。我们有华商在中国投资生意,深受当地正攵府腐败问题的困扰。虽然中国的各项法规制度亦然逐渐完善,但大鬼好拜,小鬼难缠,地方官员潜在的制衡,社会层面普遍的敲诈勒索实在猖獗。先忽悠你进来,再零刀慢割,零星收拾你。一个小庙没拜好,一个关节过不去,一个地痞没摆平,生意损失惨淡,项目前功尽弃。面对这种天高皇帝远,法不治众的社会普遍的腐败现象,有的华商苦不堪言。您作为全国人大代表,在立法、监法中,如何看待腐败与国家制度问题?中国何时才能出现可以监督制约腐败的制度?

  程恩富:经济政治制度有广义、中义与狭义之分。狭义是单只一个社会的根本或基本经济制度和政治制度。中义是指根本制度和体制机制。广义是指一切制度、体制机制和规章规则,甚至西方新制度经济学还主张包括习俗等“非正规制度”。如此一来,说腐败是制度问题,或者说是制度造成的,那么,就可以有不同解释了。

  一般说来,一个国家腐败盛行,表明管理群的水平有问题,进而在预防和惩治腐败的规章制度制定和推行有问题,在有关方面的立法和执法有问题,以及在社会教育和舆论等方面也可能有问题。以中国为例,官方主要是打击受贿,而疏于打击行贿者;认为“打击行贿者不利于揭发受贿者”、“腐败有利于市场化改革”、“市场化改革越深,腐败自然越少”、“公务员等每个人都应当追求个人利益最大化,西方自私人(经济人)理论是正确的”等有害观点长期流行于社会各堺,没有得到有效遏制和批评,形成了腐败文化氛围,进而影响到立法和执法。因此,要从理论、舆论、教育、立法、执法、规章和所有制结构等多方面进行系统反思。其中,El presi mao时代和新加坡的某些措施可以借鉴;要从上层领导做起,这是问题的关键之一。

(欧华网编辑:)
发表于 2011-4-10 23:05:46 | 显示全部楼层
这篇文章挺有意思的。

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/E ... not-without-concern

Europe makes room for Chinese investment, but not without concern
China has signed a number of trade deals throughout Europe that could boost struggling economies, but some Europeans have misgivings about the possibility of a financial lifeline from China.

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, whose Paris branch said in January it would open branches across Europe to act as a ‘link for Chinese and European companies to engage in trade and
investment.’

Charles Platiau/Reuters/File
.Enlarge
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0Share1 and 0 By Andrés Cala, / Correspondent / March 11, 2011

Madrid
China's new foray in Europe was launched just days into 2011. European royalty and heads of state welcomed Vice Prime Minister Li Keqiang, believed to be next in line for premier, with great pomp. He toured Spain, Britain, and Germany with an entourage thick with rich businessmen and, along the way, announced billions of dollars of investment into Europe's debt-ridden economies.

Skip to next paragraph
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.Mr. Li returned to Beijing having promised to spend $7.9 billion more in Spanish bonds. His delegation inked 16 deals in Spain that alone are worth $7.5 billion. Following Li's visit, China's largest bank said it would double its European presence, and China even sent two pandas – Sweetie and Sunshine – to the Edinburgh Zoo in Scotland.

Many in Europe are cheering what they see as a Chinese rescue: Perhaps investment from the world's second-largest economy will save the ailing eurozone and pull some countries back from the brink of collapse.

RELATED: World's top 5 economies

But along with this potential lifeline comes risk, many economists and security analysts warn, if Europe becomes too beholden to China. Indeed, in exchange for investment, Beijing is seeking entry to big financial markets and access to technological know-how. It's also seen as coming to the Continent with an eye on gaining more geopolitical clout and possibly trying to preempt Europe's ability to react to China on all fronts – from human rights to trade disputes to the arms embargo the European Union still has in place.

"China wants to establish an alternative, a new order in which it dominates. The political move is to establish itself as a superpower alternative to the US," says Lawrence Sáez, a senior lecturer in comparative and international studies at the University of London and chair of the Centre of South Asian Studies.

More than a business exchange
Mr. Sáez says China's involvement in Europe could first lead to bringing down trade barriers. In Spain, for example, during Li's visit China's biggest oil refiner formalized a $7.1 billion stake purchase in the Brazilian operations of Spain's largest energy company, Repsol, which had for years rejected offers from Chinese and Russian companies.

While China's promises of billions of dollars in business investment will be years in the making, already scores of middle- and upper-class Chinese students and entrepreneurs are coming to Europe in anticipation of a greater economic partnership between China and Europe.

Cultural exchanges are increasing, too. Last October, Italian author Umberto Eco and Chinese researcher Qui Xigui chaired the first annual EU-China High Level Cultural Forum in Brussels. This year, the forum will be organized in China and focus on youth and greater cultural cooperation.

Chengcheng Li, originally from an impoverished mountainous region near Tibet, came to Spain almost five years ago from the outskirts of Beijing as part of a student exchange program. An only child of a chemistry professor and gynecologist, she just wanted "to leave the mountains, but I never dreamed Europe would be my destiny." She soon discovered what her place should be in a new world increasingly influenced by China's spreading wings.

"I am a bridge, an ambassador," says Ms. Chengcheng, in her early 20s, pointing to how little China and Europe know about each other. In the northern region of Catalonia, she earned a bachelor's degree and two master's degrees while working as a marketing consultant in a firm exporting high-end Spanish goods to China.

She was in the first batch of Chinese exchange students in Spain, who were made into minor celebrities by Spanish TV. "This is very new," she says. "We are not opening up restaurants and grocery stores, looking to escape poverty. We are getting an education, learning about Europe, networking, and doing business."

She's now enrolled in a part-time business program at IE Business School in Madrid and working toward a master's degree in business administration. "Business is politics and politics is business," she says, switching between fluent Spanish and English.
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